The best estimate is about 64,000 kilometers, but possibly as close as about
43,000 kilometers on that date (the lower value is about 3 standard
deviations away from the nominal prediction. The current chance of an impact
on April 13, 2029 is now down to about 1 in 18,700 - not quite zero, but
awfully close.
Jim.
On Tue, 28 Dec 2004, Joe Brekke wrote:
>
> > BTW, did you hear about asteroid 2004 MN4? It's a 400 meter sized
> asteroid
> > that over the weekend was estimated to have an impact probability on the
> > future date of April 13, 2029 that started at 1 in 300 and rose to 1 in 38
> > before our group found some prediscovery images that improved the orbit
> > enough to show that impact would definitely not happen - at least not on
> > April 13, 2029.... Doomsday averted again! Actually, a 400 meter
> asteroid
> > would make a real mess, but only if it hit very close to you would it
> spell
> > your doom....
> >
> > Jim.
> >
>
> Very interesting! So if it's not going to impact, just how close will it
> come?
>
>
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Jim Scotti
Lunar & Planetary Laboratory
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721 USA http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/~jscotti/
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