Well done! -Rob (Wily Javelina) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Team Tierra Buena" To: "Mary L. Estes" Cc: "Arizona Geocaching" Sent: Tuesday, October 21, 2003 10:13 PM Subject: [Az-Geocaching] Geocaching Statistics, 2002 and 2003 Mary, I'm sorry it took so long to compile the attached statistics. Please forward these on to the land managers. I am copying the azgeocaching.com mailing list. You will recall that at the original land management meeting in September, 2002, we compiled a set of statistics based on the 100 oldest active caches in Arizona. We chose that subset to give us the greatest history and likely the most consistent statistics. Also, the oldest caches were more likely to be placed in open lands such as would be of concern to land managers. Those statistics are repeated as the first section of the attached Excel spreadsheet. We've now run a similar set of statistics against the 100 oldest active caches today. 90 of the hundred oldest last year remain on the list, the others having been archived for various reasons (the Aspen fire on Mt. Lemmon being one significant one). From my point of view, the most significant statistic is the average number of days between finds for these caches. What is remarkable is that the number has hardly changed from last year to this. These caches are found on the average of once every 37 days, or less than once every five weeks. Even if we were to make a rather rash assumption that only half of those who seek a cache log that event online, that would still mean these caches are visited only once every two to three weeks or so. We could halve that number again for the people who look for the caches but don't find them (the average of logged unsuccessful attempts in less than 2, but it's probable that many who can't find a cache don't log such an attempt). Even considering that, our average visitation rate, very worst case, would appear to be on the order of once every ten days or so. I think this is important for two reasons. One is that the increased popularity of Geocaching doesn't lead to an increase in visitation to any given Geocache. That is because as the Geocacher population increases, so does the number of caches. If you remember from our most recent meeting, the number of caches in Arizona has essentially doubled in the last year, to 1,659 on the night of our most recent meeting. (By the way, that works out to a statewide geographical density of one Geocache for every 68.5 square miles). The other reason is that cachers, especially newcomers, by and large tend to seek out less challenging caches, leaving the caches in remote areas until they gain more experience, stamina, or both. So I believe this number should allay the fears that hordes of Geocachers are descending on any particular Geocache and adversely impacting the environment by sheer force of numbers. And based on the discussions at our meeting, I don't believe that fear is as intense as it appeared to be in 2002. I think we're all becoming more attuned to each others' concerns and desires and looking for ways to address them all. I believe that as we go forward that cooperative spirit will continue to grow and prevail. I look forward to next year's meeting, and I'm sure we'll be in touch well before then. Regards, Steve