[Az-Geocaching] Geocaching Statistics, 2002 and 2003

[Rob Brinkerhoff]

Well done!

-Rob (Wily Javelina)

----- Original Message -----
From: "Team Tierra Buena" <TeamTierraBuena@earthlink.net>
To: "Mary L. Estes" <mestes@pr.state.az.us>
Cc: "Arizona Geocaching"
<az-geocaching@listserv.azgeocaching.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 21, 2003 10:13 PM
Subject: [Az-Geocaching] Geocaching Statistics, 2002 and
2003


Mary,
I'm sorry it took so long to compile the attached
statistics. Please forward
these on to the land managers. I am copying the
azgeocaching.com mailing
list.
You will recall that at the original land management meeting
in September,
2002, we compiled a set of statistics based on the 100
oldest active caches
in Arizona. We chose that subset to give us the greatest
history and likely
the most consistent statistics. Also, the oldest caches were
more likely to
be placed in open lands such as would be of concern to land
managers. Those
statistics are repeated as the first section of the attached
Excel
spreadsheet.
We've now run a similar set of statistics against the 100
oldest active
caches today. 90 of the hundred oldest last year remain on
the list, the
others having been archived for various reasons (the Aspen
fire on Mt.
Lemmon being one significant one).
>From my point of view, the most significant statistic is the
average number
of days between finds for these caches. What is remarkable
is that the
number has hardly changed from last year to this. These
caches are found on
the average of once every 37 days, or less than once every
five weeks. Even
if we were to make a rather rash assumption that only half
of those who seek
a cache log that event online, that would still mean these
caches are
visited only once every two to three weeks or so. We could
halve that number
again for the people who look for the caches but don't find
them (the
average of logged unsuccessful attempts in less than 2, but
it's probable
that many who can't find a cache don't log such an attempt).
Even
considering that, our average visitation rate, very worst
case, would appear
to be on the order of once every ten days or so.
I think this is important for two reasons. One is that the
increased
popularity of Geocaching doesn't lead to an increase in
visitation to any
given Geocache. That is because as the Geocacher population
increases, so
does the number of caches. If you remember from our most
recent meeting, the
number of caches in Arizona has essentially doubled in the
last year, to
1,659 on the night of our most recent meeting. (By the way,
that works out
to a statewide geographical density of one Geocache for
every 68.5 square
miles). The other reason is that cachers, especially
newcomers, by and large
tend to seek out less challenging caches, leaving the caches
in remote areas
until they gain more experience, stamina, or both. So I
believe this number
should allay the fears that hordes of Geocachers are
descending on any
particular Geocache and adversely impacting the environment
by sheer force
of numbers.
And based on the discussions at our meeting, I don't believe
that fear is as
intense as it appeared to be in 2002. I think we're all
becoming more
attuned to each others' concerns and desires and looking for
ways to address
them all. I believe that as we go forward that cooperative
spirit will
continue to grow and prevail. I look forward to next year's
meeting, and I'm
sure we'll be in touch well before then.
Regards,
Steve